March 2011 Banlist Wishlist

Banned:
Cold Wave
Giant Trunade
Gateway of The Six

Limited to 1:
Blackwing – Blizzard The North Pole
Debris Dragon
Dandylion
Lonefire Blossom
Formula Synchron
Pot of Duality
Pot of Avarice
Heavy Storm
Shien’s Smoke Signal
Solemn Warning

Limited to 2:
Emergency Teleport

Unlimited:
Bottomless Trap Hole

Reasoning:

Banned:

Cold Wave
Its just too strong with cards like Black Rose, Judgement Dragon and XX-Saber Hyunlei around. If it doesn’t stop your opponent from using Spell/Trap cards on his turn, it might not be so bad. However it does.

Giant Trunade
Probably to curb most of the OTK decks, making it harder to win Spell/Trap based control decks.

Gateway of The Six
I believe its too strong with its ability to create insane amounts of advantage with the deck. Also, I don’t think Konami will leave any competitive Infinite Loop intact.

Limited to 1:

Blackwing – Blizzard The North Pole/Debris Dragon
Game turners and instant Synchro monsters for their respective decks.

Dandylion
At 1, it dies easily to cards like D.D. Crow

Lonefire Blossom
Even with Dandylion at 1, the Plant combos can still be easily accomplished with Monster Reborn and/or Limit Reverse.

Formula Synchron
Too strong especially with Hyper Librarian around. It creates free advantage through drawing a card every time it is Synchro summoned. Also nerfs Formula Frog Monarchs a little to prevent them from owning the meta.

Pot of Duality
Makes too many decks over consistent. At 1, I believe it is just right.

Pot of Avarice
Makes cards like Ryko less playable due to the high risk of milling important monsters and making it less attractive to run milling engines.

Heavy Storm
With Cold Wave and Trunade gone, this card should come back. It is strong, but it can be easily stopped by cards like Starlight Road or Stardust Dragon. Makes Starlight Road more attractive to play especially with Dark Hole around.

Shien’s Smoke Signal
Similar to RoTA and COTLB, it makes the deck it is played in too consistent. T1 Shien should happen less often now.

Solemn Warning
With no Cold Wave and Giant Trunade, too many copies of this card will cause control decks to own the meta. Also makes Starlight Road less easily stopped.

Limited to 2:

Emergency Teleport
Great card, this might actually happen due to the Gustas and the new Psychic cards in EXVC.

Unlimited:

Bottomless Trap Hole
Hardly sees play nowadays anyway. Should keep beatdown decks in check.

Active Game Collections Tournament 22/01/2010

Part 1

Deck Used: Angels

Match 1
VS Ocean Beat OO
Game 1: Won using Cold Wave with Honest and Herald of Orange Light into Goyo Guardian.
Game 2: Won by attacking Ocean with Venus while he had 400LP and I had Honest.

Match 2
VS Doppel Draw Dandy (Xiao Mei) OXO
Game 1: Double Honest helped me to win.
Game 2: Died to Kaien due to the inability of using Book of Moon on Tokens.
Game 3: Had triple Master Hyperion with two Agents to remove from play. Later when they both died I summoned Kristia which died to Raigeki Break. She used Reborn on my Hyperion and I struggled for quite a while since I only had 3 Angels in my graveyard. I then drew into Herald of Orange Light and attacked into her Doppel Warrior. I summoned Kristia which took back Herald of Orange Light. Controlled from there with Kristia.

Top 16
VS Doppel Draw Dandy (Xiao Mei) OO
Game 1: Forgot what happened.
Game 2: She Solemned my Trishula, then Hyperion destroyed Spore and attacked with Mystic Shine Ball for the win.

Top 8
VS Limit Reverse (Junqi) OXX
Game 1: Forgot what happened.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.
Game 3: I misplayed by opening PoD while I had Stardust which led to him using Raigeki Break on Stardust.

4th – 8th Placing Match
VS Lightsworn (You Win) XOO
Game 1: Got controlled by his Oppression until I drew Decree, he summoned JD and won soon after.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.
Game 3: He tried to use Goyo to pull my Venus but I used Herald of Orange Light. Summoned Hyperion next turn and controlled.

5th-6th Placing Match
VS Six Samurai (Jin Hao) ???
I topped him $2 to take the Tuning which I sold.

Result: 5th/6th Position

Part 2
Match 1
VS Limit Reverse Debris Dandy (Jonas) OO
Game 1: Forgot what happened.
Game 2: Controlled with Kristia.

Match 2
VS Doppel Draw Dandy (Bank) XOX
Game 1: Drew a bad hand of many Hyperions and Krystias and struggled for a while until I drew Hecatrice and Valhalla helped me to survive for a while before losing.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.
Game 3: Drew too many Hyperions again with no Agents to summon it with.

Result: Scrubbed, but at least Bank helped me pay my Entry Fee.

Reflection: Lol, it seems that my hands were extremely good before playing with Bank. I opened with Earth almost every game with BOM or Herald of Orange Light to protect it. So, it was a pretty lucky day for me except for the last match.

Rock Paper Scissors

After reading Team Rose Bud’s post on RPS, I believe it makes alot of sense.

Due to the importance of starting first in this game, RPS will allow players to change the outcome of the duel rather than the usual die roll.

Some people might say that RPS is almost as luck-based as the die roll. But actually RPS requires a slight amount of skill especially in best two out of three matches. A player will be able to make reads based on his opponent’s tendency to make reads on him.

However, RPS has some problems, especially when there is some lag when either player shows their choice. The best way to solve this problem is to use a RPS die and hide it behind your hand with your choice at the top, then both players reveal their choices.

So try it out yourself, best two out of three RPS matches. It requires much more skill then the usual die roll.

Gold Series 2011

So, the list has been out since Friday.

There are quite a few subpar cards here. For example, Mask of Darkness, Riryoku, Blazes of Demise and Widespread Ruin.

Compared to the first two sets, this set does not have much appeal to newer players except for maybe Trishula, Dark Hole and maybe Chimeratech Fortress Dragon.

Although it could help newer Debris Dandy players alot through Ryko and Chaos Sorceror.

I expected Gugnir to be the second Normal Rare, however it is not. Chimeratech Fortress Dragon as the Normal Rare is not really that great, as the price of its Ultra Rare version is no more than $20 unlike Gugnir.

I don’t really recommend anybody buying a box if you already have a Trishula, you will be better off buying the singles.

One extremely bad thing about this set is that there is a chance that there will be no Normal Rare in your box at all. So, don’t be surprised if you don’t get a Trishula or Chimeratech Fortress Dragon in yours.

Active Game Collections Tournament 15/10/2010

Deck used: Blackwings

Match 1
Zan Hao (Hero Beat) XOO
Game 1: Died to his Raious.
Game 2: Dark Armed Dragon controlled the game.
Game 3: Struggled with Gale and double Blizzard. Eventually Dark Armed Dragon came down

Match 2
Yong Siang (Six Samurai) XOO
Game 1: Died to the Shien lock.
Game 2: Not sure what happened here.
Game 3: I used Pot to get Kinetic Soldier with another one in my hand. I summoned Kinetic Soldier and he used Solemn Judgement on it. Later I summoned my second Kinetic and controlled the game.

Top 12
Yong Siang (Six Samurais) XOO
Game 1: Died to the Infinite Bushido Counter loop.
Game 2: Forgot what happened here.
Game 3: Kinetic Soldier controlled the game.

We offered to cover each others entry fees.

Top 6
Jia Jie (Six Samurais) XOO
Game 1: Died to the Shien lock.
Game 2: Goyo + Kinetic + Gozen Match FTW.
Game 3: Rushed him with Shura, Bora and double Kalut.

Shared with him.

Top 3
Potato (Lightsworn) XOX
Game 1: Forgot what happened.
Game 2: Bora attacked into his Spore with Triple Kalut from Black Whirlwind.
Game 3: His Bulb milled Spore and he Foolished for Dandylion. Somehow he ended up with Judgment Dragon, Trishula and Brionac to kill me. (3000+2700+2300=8000)

Top 3
??? (Hyperion Angels) XOX
Game 1: Died to Hyperion spamming.
Game 2: Forgot how I won.
Game 3: He had Consecrated Light with 2 Mystic Shine Balls. I had Bora, and Booked his Consecrated Light. I summoned Shura and he used Torrential. Later he summoned Christia and I Oppressed it. I was left with about 3200LP, he summoned Venus and I warninged it, leaving me with 1200LP. He summoned Hyperion and I oppressed it again, leaving me with 400LP. Next turn he summoned another Hyperion FTW.

Result: 3rd with Kizan as my prize.

Exchanged the Kizan for 6 packs of GS 2011. Jia Jie had 2 packs. In the end we got 8 packs from a new box. Apparently, the box had no Normal Rares at all.

Active Game Connections 8/1/2010

Deck Used: Blackwings

Match 1
Zhen Hei (Gigavise) OXX
Game 1: D.Arms + DAD FTW
Game 2: Died to the Power Tool Loop.
Game 3: Died to the Power Tool Loop.

Match 2
Sorry don’t know your name (Limit Reverse Debris Dandy) OO
Game 1: Kalut attacked for a few turns and eventually I won with something else that I forgot.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.

Match 3
Zhen Hei’s brother (Sanctuary in the Sky Hyperion Krystia) OO
Game 1: I made Armour Master and set Oppression, he then summoned Hyperion which I Oppressed followed by Krystia which I Oppressed again. Later he was at 1800LP, he had a face down monster while I had Armour Master along with Vayu f/d and Oppression face-up. I had Dark Hole, Reborn and Dark Armed Dragon in my hand. I summoned DAD and surprisingly he did not Oppress it, so I just won from there with DAD’s effect.
Game 2: He opened with a Goyo Guardian and I couldn’t get through. Luckily I had Solemn Warning along with my Kalut, he tried to pull my Kalut and I Warninged his Goyo Guardian. Summoned Blizzard to pull Kalut and made a Catastor to control the game. Later, he tried to make Armory Arm with Veiler and Venus, I Oppressed it but then he had Wild Tornado but I had Seven Tools of the Bandit so I won.

Match 4
You Win (Lightsworn) OO
Game 1: I summoned Shura, he attacked with Jain and I booked it. Next turn I summoned Bora, attacked with Shura and summoned Vayu to attack again. Next turn he set a f/d monster and I made Trishula followed by summoning Dark Armed Dragon.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.

Match 5
Kaven (Quickdraw Dandy) XOO
Game 1: Forgot what happened.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.
Game 3: Controlled with double Nobleman of Crossout.

Top 6
Junqi (Limit Reverse Debris Dandy) XX
Game 1: Forgot what happened.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.

Bottom 3 – Match 1
Guan Ji (Six Samurais) XX
Game 1: Died to 1st turn Shien with Gateway.
Game 2: I set Spirit Reaper, next turn I flipped it up and he Solemn Warninged it. I set Greenkappa, next turn I flipped it up and he used Solemned Judgment on it. He was left with 3000LP, but I couldn’t get through.

Bottom 3 – Match 2
Bank (Blackwings) OXO
Game 1: Forgot what happened.
Game 2: Forgot what happened.
Game 3: Forgot what happened.

Result: 6th (Hyper Librarian)

Pot of Duality

Haven’t really got much to post nowadays with the meta getting settled down in the middle of the format.

I just read Max’s post on how Upstart Goblin helps decks like Six Samurais to get their combo pieces faster. This reminded me of some calculations I did when I was testing out triple Pot of Dualities and triple Upstart Goblins in my Hero Beat deck a few months back.

During my free time, I actually did an entire Excel worksheet showing how much PoD and Upstart Goblin helped the deck in terms of consistency. However, my notebook has been down for quite some time and I didn’t bother to fix it yet, so I don’t have the file with me.

So, I will just be going through some minor calculations.

The deck I will be using as an example will be Blackwings as I do not wish to go crazy by repeating what I did with my Hero Beat deck (I calculated the probability of drawing Upstart through Upstart through Upstart through PoD, so the numbers were extremely small and almost negligible). Also, PoD’s once per turn effect makes it so much easier to calculate than Upstart Goblin.

Forgive me for any mistakes as I am doing this entire post with just my phone.

For starters, the deck plays triple PoD with a lone Black Whirlwind. I will be taking the starting hand as 6 cards.

Firstly, I will calculate the percentage of drawing Black Whirlwind in my starting hand without the help of other cards.

% of drawing Black Whirlwind in starting hand = (1/40)+(1/39)+(1/38)+(1/37)+(1/36)+(1/35) = 16.033%

Next, I will calculate the chance of drawing PoD in my starting hand.

% of drawing Pot of Duality in starting hand = (3/40)+(3/39)+(3/38)+(3/37)+(3/36)+(3/35) = 48.099%

Then, I will find the percentage of using PoD to get to Black Whirlwind.

% of PoD into Black Whirlwind = (1/34)+(1/33)+(1/32) = 9.0964% (This is why PoD is amazing, almost 10% to get a card which you only play a lone copy of)

Now, I will multiply the percentage of drawing PoD by the percentage of using PoD to get to Black Whirlwind.

% of drawing PoD and getting Black Whirlwind with it = 48.099%×9.0964% = 4.375%

And the total percentage of getting Black Whirlwind T1 is calculated by adding up the percentage of drawing Black Whirlwind naturally and the percentage of getting Black Whirlwind with PoD.

= 16.033%+4.375% = 20.408%

That means that you will open with Black Whirlwind at least every 5 games in theory. Although this hardly happens in real life as there are many other factors to probability, you can’t just add up the numbers to 100%. If your luck is extremely bad, you may never ever draw Black Whirlwind even if you play like a hundred games.

This shows how imba Pot of Duality actually is, it actually gets better and better the longer the game lasts as your deck is thinner.

I’m not exactly sure how all this probability stuff works, so if you guys spot any mistakes please feel free to correct me.

*Edit
It seems that my calculations were wrong, so I will fix them here using stattrek.com/Tables/Hypergeometric.aspx as introduced by Max.

Probability of getting Black Whirlwind T1 = 15%

Population Size (Deck Size) = 40
Sample Size (Starting Hand) = 6
Number of Successes in Population = 1
Number of Successes in Sample = 1

Probability of getting PoD T1 = 34.02%

Population Size (Deck Size) = 34
Sample Size (Starting Hand) = 6
Number of Successes in Population = 3
Number of Successes in Sample = 1

Probability of PoD into Black Whirlwind = 8.82%

Population Size (Deck Size) = 34
Sample Size (Cards revealed through PoD) = 3
Number of Successes in Population = 1
Number of Successes in Sample = 1

Probability of getting Black Whirlwind T1 = 18%

15%+34.02%*8.82 = 18%